By:
Peter Schiff
There can be little doubt that data releases rather than experience
or intuition are driving the economic conversation. This is perhaps a
function of the disconnection that many people feel about an economy
that they no longer understand. Rather than trusting their own eyes or
their own gut to form an opinion, it's much easier to grab a set of
convenient numbers. The big question then becomes what numbers you
choose to look at and which you choose to ignore.
While there are a great many types of economic data releases,
issued by a myriad of public and private sources, two reports have risen
above the rest in importance: the Quarterly GDP estimates issued by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the monthly jobs report issued by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics. And those two reports have been recently
coming up roses. The 3rd quarter GDP growth report, released on November
25th, revised growth upwards to an annualized rate of 3.9%, and the
November Jobs report, released on December 5th, showed the creation of
321,000 new jobs in November, the highest monthly total in nearly three
years. These reports have solidified the views of the mass of analysts
that the U.S. economy is currently firing on all cylinders.
But to make this conclusion, almost all the other data sets, which
used to be considered significant, have been either ignored or, when
that proves impossible, rationalized away to make the figures
unimportant. This never happens with strong data, which is typically
accepted at face value.
In the weeks leading up to, and the days after, the recent GDP and
jobs reports, a torrent of data releases came in that were almost
universally awful. However, in our current era of journalistic lethargy,
these reports have received almost no attention at all.
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